Contributing Editor
The 2024 peanut crop was often described as disappointing, difficult and challenging on the farm.
Overall, with the weather extremes, including two hurricanes and other problems, the industry is lucky to have the volume and quality that has been delivered.
Most disappointment came near harvest when yields and grades were down, again caused by weather and growing conditions during the season. One grower said he followed Peanut Rx recommendations, and the crop looked good on top, but at harvest time, “they were just not there,” he said of the low yields. Another farmer, and sadly probably more than one, said, “This looks like a good time to quit.”
Hammered by extremes, the 2024 crop was about one-third planted when it rained for two weeks. After recovery, another one-third was planted into drought conditions. The final one-third was planted late, and each part of the crop had to be treated differently.
Better Quality Than Expected
Crop quality is better than originally predicted, and aflatoxin is less of an issue than anticipated. Extension agronomists and pathologists estimate only a 4.7% infestation of Tomato Spotted Wilt Virus in Georgia.
The market is fairly quiet as shellers are still counting up total tonnage and have sold a certain percentage to date. If the crop is smaller, then each sheller, depending on position, is more heavily sold than previously thought. As a result, shellers are taking a cautious selling attitude until final numbers are known.
With harvest of the latest-planted crop being very late, the final crop numbers are still somewhat of a mystery. Overall, and with unknown aplenty, it looks like we will be short of U.S. Department of Agriculture numbers. Georgia is lagging the most, but now estimates a 3.15 million ton total crop production.
USDA’s Farm Service Agency confirmed planted area at 1,788,609 acres, up 10% from 2023. The production forecast was 6.71 billion pounds, or 3,256,150 tons, an increase of 9% over last year. Producers knew they had overplanted, and with normal growing conditions, the peanut market would be flooded. That encourages producers to contract a portion of the crop early and possibly divert a portion to a sheller pool or market loan.
Demand Slowing
There is still a percentage of this crop to be contracted with reported buyers of farmer stock at $550 to $575. It may eventually take $600 to secure the balance of possibly 20% left for contracting. New-crop offers are difficult to get for the 2025 calendar year with several sellers withdrawing from the market.
One of the challenges was to limit risks and find ways to do things smarter. Farmer-stock prices remain relatively low compared to the costs of production. Therefore, limiting fungicide and insecticide applications when needed could be a major savings at the end, but that is quite risky.
Demand for peanuts and peanut butter has shown signs of slowing as the general economy and inflation pressures a family’s income. Raw peanuts in primary products decreased 3.75% from August to October compared to the same three months of 2023. Peanut butter usage declined 4.8% compared to last year. Candy usage is down 7.2% for the three-month period, with an 11.6% decline in October, alone, versus last year. Peanuts in snacks are up 2.2% compared to last year. USDA says overall usage is down 4% to date.
Ending Stocks
Changes in consumption patterns should favor peanuts and peanut butter as consumers choose more plant-based diets. This change to manufacturers’ product line ups is thought of as more respectful of the environment and provides functional benefits in regard to health.
Ending stocks this year is estimated at 811,000 tons. These are the peanuts that fill the pipeline from August until November each year or until the newest crop is shelled and ready. With a 200,000-ton usage amount per month, after four months, it could mean a tightening of the market for supply, and prices could improve next year.
Export Markets
What about exports? Export markets were up 17.5% in volume for the year at 585,789 metric tons compared to 2023’s 498,330 metric tons. Tariff talk worries the peanut industry, especially regarding shipments to Mexico and Canada. Even European Union tariffs have been waived on peanut butter and raw peanuts after an agreement last year.
What about next year? Peanut specialists say it plain. Stick to known practices, including varieties. Since 2024 total production is short, prices should remain firm. Some producers are in trouble financially. Growing peanuts in 2025 will be an agreement between the grower and sheller with advice from the buying point. Manufacturers should be making sure peanuts are planted, and they are booking at a price that will keep the farmer profitable.
Help Needed
Leaders are pleading for financial assistance from Washington D.C. now to combat multiple years of higher costs of production and low commodity prices. Farm Bill funds would likely not arrive until late 2026 with any assistance.
I think the future looks good for peanuts. We’re growing a delicious, nutritious and sustainable food that is affordable. Now, we’ve got to find ways to make it profitable.
